The Railroad Retirement Board is required
by law to submit annual financial reports and triennial actuarial
valuations to Congress on the financial condition of the railroad
retirement system, as well as annual financial reports on the railroad
unemployment insurance system. These reports must also include
recommendations for any financing changes which may be advisable in
order to ensure the solvency of the system. In June, the Board
submitted its 21st Actuarial Valuation of the railroad retirement
system's assets and liabilities and its financial report on the rail
unemployment insurance system.
The following questions and answers summarize the findings of these
reports.
How much money is in the Railroad Retirement Board trust funds?
By the end of Fiscal Year 1999, the net position of the railroad
retirement trust funds was almost $18 billion, while the railroad
unemployment insurance account balance was almost $110 million.
What was the overall finding of the 21st triennial actuarial
valuation of the railroad retirement system's assets and liabilities?
The 21st triennial actuarial valuation was generally favorable and
reflected an improvement over the last triennial valuation and the two
most recent annual financial reports, which it attributed primarily to
favorable economic and employment experience. The 21st valuation
concluded that, barring a sudden, unanticipated, large drop in
railroad employment, no cash-flow problems arise during the next 35
years. However, like previous railroad retirement financial reports,
the valuation also indicated that the long-term stability of the
system, under its current financing structure, is still dependent on
future railroad employment levels.
Over the years, the main source of income to the railroad
retirement system has been a payroll tax on railroad employment. The
amount of income that the tax produces is directly dependent on the
number of railroad employees covered under the system. Therefore,
under current law, actual levels of railroad employment over the
coming years will largely determine whether any financing changes are
necessary to ensure the system's solvency.
What methods were used in forecasting the financial condition of
the railroad retirement system?
The 2000 valuation projected the various components of income and
outgo of the railroad retirement system under three employment
assumptions, utilizing different patterns of change in the railroad
work force for the 75 calendar years 1999-2073. The projections of
these components were combined and the investment income calculated to
produce the projected balances in the railroad retirement accounts at
the end of each projection year.
Projecting income and outgo under the three different assumptions,
the report indicated actuarial surpluses under the optimistic and
moderate assumptions with no cash-flow problems during the 75-year
period. An actuarial deficiency was indicated only under the
pessimistic assumption; and, even under that assumption, no cash-flow
problem arises until the year 2035.
The 20th valuation, released in 1997, also indicated an actuarial
deficiency under a pessimistic assumption, but with a cash-flow
problem arising in the year 2021.
Did the 21st valuation of the railroad retirement system recommend
any railroad retirement payroll tax rate changes?
The report did not recommend any change in the rate of tax imposed
by current law on employers and employees. The absence of projected
cash-flow problems for at least 35 years under each employment
assumption indicated that an immediate increase in tax rates is not
required. However, because of future financing problems occurring
under the pessimistic employment assumption, a decrease in tax rates
was not recommended.
What were the findings of the 2000 report on the financial
condition of the railroad unemployment insurance system?
The Board's 2000 railroad unemployment insurance financial report
was also favorable, indicating that even as maximum benefit rates
increase 50 percent (from $46 to $69) from 1999 to 2010, the
unemployment insurance account remains solvent, even under the Board's
most pessimistic employment assumption.
Unemployment levels are the single most significant factor
affecting the financial status of the railroad unemployment insurance
system. However, the system's experience rating provisions, which
adjust tax rates for changing benefit levels, and its surcharge
trigger for maintaining a minimum balance help to ensure financial
stability in the advent of adverse economic conditions.
What methods were used to evaluate the financial condition of the
railroad unemployment insurance system?
The economic and employment assumptions used in the unemployment
insurance report corresponded to those used in the report on the
retirement system. Projections were made for various components of
income and outgo under each of three employment assumptions, but for
the period 2000-2010, rather than a 75-year period.
What did the report indicate regarding tax rates during the
projection period?
Under the experience rating provisions, each employer's tax rate is
determined by the Railroad Retirement Board on the basis of benefit
payments made to the railroad's employees. The report predicted that,
even under the most pessimistic assumption, the average employer tax
rate remains well below the maximum throughout the projection period;
but a periodic resumption of the surcharge required to maintain a
minimum account balance was also predicted.
Did the 2000 report on the railroad unemployment insurance system
recommend any financing changes to the sytem?
No financing changes were recommended at this time by the report. |